Sunday, November 15, 2015

How Many More Leaflets? Have Alliance lost it in Carrick?

I know many of you are asking yourselves, how many more leaflets? given the amount of Council and Assembly campaign material already received by post and by hand. The answer, who knows in the next few days!
How Many More Leaflets? Have Alliance lost it in Carrick?, However one leaflet really stood out for me, not I suspect for the reasons intended.

I received an Alliance Party postal Leaflet to my home in Carrick which made the following statement, "In East Antrim it's Alliance or Sein Fein -your choice". Now clearly the Alliance Party spelt Sinn Fein incorrectly, but that isn't the point.

Only a week before, East Antrim Alliance candidate Ms Mulvenna, made the following comment, "Alliance works with all parties to build consensus and the UUP would do well to follow Alliance's example instead of being negative on issues like who will be First Minister".

So which is it Geraldine Mulvenna, your press office or your leaflet writer, who speaks for Alliance in East Antrim?

Of course the reality in East Antrim could be much easier ascertained by any Alliance member if they chose to pop into the bookmakers beside their Carrick office.

The bookmakers, like the experts, predict Alliance one seat but with no chance of two, they give the DUP three seats with no chance of four, and they give the UUP one certain seat. In fact the sixth seat, according to the bookies and experts (I am reliably informed), is the only issue in East Antrim. That means the second Ulster Unionist, me in all probability, against Sinn Fein. The odds are 5/2 and 6/4.

So on the expert view bizarrely in East Antrim voting DUP 1-4 will help Sinn Fein and open up the prospect of a seat for Sinn Fein for the first time. The boundary changes have made this possible. Had the DUP ran 3 candidates the prospect of a Sinn Fein MLA for East Antrim would have remained much more remote. Voters would have transferred after the third candidate rather than after a fourth who will be well behind the race. Votes always go astray on transfers.

So just to be clear, Working For Change in East Antrim the Alliance leaflet should have read, In East Antrim it is McCune or Sinn Fein -your choice. But I suppose Alliance don't want to tell voters that.

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